Some Big Takeaways from the Golden Globes Ceremony
While the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has no voting overlap with AMPAS, because the Golden Globe Awards can make tides turn in the Oscar race, they did shake things up in quite a dramatic way on Sunday night. Without further ado, here’s a look at some of the big post-Globe takeaways.
Best Picture is a two-person battle
Nomadland managed to take home Best Motion Picture-Drama, meaning that Best Picture might still be a fight between Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 which only took home Best Screenplay for Aaron Sorkin. Nomadland has shown a strong critical dominance, yet because the industry guilds haven’t had their say yet, we could have a Boyhood/Birdman-type match-up. The quiet, meditative small indie that does well with the critics up against a flashy, bombastic, star-heavy drama. Then again, despite Moonlight being a similarly meditative small indie with a cast full of relative unknowns, it still triumphed over La La Land, a flashy musical about Hollywood packed with star power. So, anything can happen.
Actor races feel signed and sealed
What felt like a race might not be much of a race anymore as Chadwick Boseman might sweep his way through the Best Actor category and win an eventual posthumous Oscar for his astounding work in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. If Anthony Hopkins couldn’t win at the Globes despite them loving The Father, and Hopkins never winning a competitive Golden Globe, then I don’t see him winning the Oscar. The fact that Sony Pictures Classics has butchered the film’s campaign with its scattered release date only hurts his chances even more. Again, if there’s any acting category that feels bound for a sweep, it’s this one.
As for Best Supporting Actor, it looks like it’s Daniel Kaluuya’s to lose. He won at the Golden Globes for his magnetic turn as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah and his road to the Oscar may just continue from there. His performance is the kind of demonstrative work voters love with his bombastic monologues and fiery line delivery. The fact that he’s made good on the early promise he showed in his Best Actor-nominated performance in Get Out certainly doesn’t hurt. If anyone can spoil his chances, it’s probably Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7. But again, Kaluuya’s work is the kind that demands your attention.
Actress races are up in the air
Although the Oscar for Best Actor feels almost sewn up, both Best Lead and Supporting Actress are completely up for grabs. Carey Mulligan was deemed a front runner in Lead Actress-Drama going into Sunday night before Andra Day pulled off an upset victory for The United States vs. Billie Holiday, earning a likely spot in the Best Actress five since it’s extremely rare for Lead Actress in a Motion Picture-Drama winners to be snubbed by the Academy. Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road was the last to be left out, yet that was due to the category fiasco involving her performance in The Reader. So, Day has secured at least the fourth spot in Best Actress. Whether she can win is questionable since no Best Actress winner has won without a SAG and BAFTA nomination. Yet, stats do always get broken so Best Actress could really be anyone’s game.
Same applies to Best Supporting Actress since Jodie Foster pulled off a surprise victory on Sunday night for The Mauritanian. As I said in my last post on the Best Supporting Actress race, Foster has given me vibes of Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell and if she gets a BAFTA nomination, which even Bates didn’t get, she‘s definitely getting a “welcome back” slot.
What of the rest of the competition, though? Well, while both are likely nominees, we won’t have a Close-Colman rematch. If Colman couldn’t win for The Father despite the Globes loving her and the film, then a nomination is as far as she’ll go. Especially after winning her first so soon. As for whether Close can still win this, well, her transformative role as the foul-mouthed, chain-smoking Mamaw in Hillbilly Elegy is one akin to previous Supporting Actress winners like Allison Janney in I, Tonya and Melissa Leo in The Fighter. However, it’s the kind of performance that normally would steamroll the way Janney and Leo did and Close clearly won’t be doing that. Who knows, maybe Youn Yuh-jung could be a dark horse for Minari since it’s a Best Picture contender with potentially more widespread support. She may have missed at the Globes, but as previously mentioned, stats always get broken.
Then there’s Maria Bakalova who might be in even more trouble than before. Despite Borat Subsequent Moviefilm winning big at the Globes, the fact that Bakalova couldn’t triumph despite its dominance is rather concerning. Normally, I don’t like to play devil’s advocate and play into such biases that voters have, but AMPAS does have a notorious bias against comedic performances such as this. If Sacha Baron Cohen didn’t get nominated for the first Borat, I don’t know if the relatively unknown Bakalova can make the cut so I’m leaving her off my predictions.
Chloe Zhao is bound to make history
While not a total surprise, Chloe Zhao managed to win Best Director for Nomadland and given her ongoing awards dominance, she’s on track to make history as the sixth woman to get nominated in Best Director and both the second woman, and first Asian woman, to win Best Director. Even if we have another Picture/Director split, I feel confident that Zhao is going to achieve a historic win. I guess David Fincher could spoil for Mank once the industry awards have their say, but as of now, it remains Zhao’s to lose.
What do you guys think? What are some major takeaways from the ceremony? Please share your thoughts!
