My Final (?) Oscar Nomination Predictions

The time is finally coming. After this long, extended season, Oscar nominations are finally being announced on Monday morning and honestly, even with precursors announcing their nominees, I have no concrete idea of how they will transpire. But this Herculean task is one that must be completed even if my predictions in each category may change after this article goes up.

Without further ado, here are my final predictions in the eight major categories:

Best Picture:

1. Nomadland
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Promising Young Woman
5. Mank
6. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
7. One Night in Miami..
8. Sound of Metal
9. Judas and the Black Messiah

Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 remain at the top with Minari as a dark horse. Despite missing Best Picture at the Globes and BAFTAs, it still achieved the powerful nomination combo of PGA, DGA, and SAG. So, it’s still hitting where it needs to and is accessible enough to do well on the Best Picture preferential ballot. Meanwhile, Promising Young Woman and Mank round out the Top Five while Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night in Miami remain in sixth and seventh. Then, you have Sound of Metal looking to pull a “Whiplash” and Judas and the Black Messiah experiencing a late surge.

Best Director:

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
2. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
3. David Fincher, Mank
4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
5. Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

It remains Chloe Zhao’s award to lose. Even if Nomadland loses Best Picture, Zhao still looks to make history as the second woman ever, and first Asian woman, to win Best Director. Initially, I figured it’d be Zhao vs. Fincher, but between the BAFTAs snubbing Mank in both Best Film and Best Director and it going home empty-handed at the Golden Globes, the industry has shown clear indifference towards it. As for the rest of the field, I have Lee Isaac Chung as the new dark horse and Emerald Fennell as a solid fourth for Promising Young Woman.

Also, instead of Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7, I’m predicting DGA First-Time Feature nominee Darius Marder makes the cut for Sound of Metal. This category has been prone to including surprise passion picks with almost no precursor support over presumed locks (i.e. Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread over Martin McDonagh, Lenny Abrahamson for Room over Ridley Scott, etc.). So, I’ll go out on a limb and predict Marder to be the latest to continue that trend.

Then again, you have previous Oscar winner Regina King on the verge of making history as the first Black woman to be nominated in this category for One Night in Miami, BAFTA nominee Thomas Vinterberg who could pull off a “Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War” and make the cut for Best International Feature frontrunner Another Round, and Florian Zeller who could earn a lone Director nomination a la “Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher” if The Father doesn’t end up making the Best Picture lineup.

Best Actor:

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father
3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
4. Steven Yeun, Minari
5. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

As of now, Boseman, Ahmed, and Hopkins are looking very solid. After that, honestly, who the heck knows? Given how Minari has guild support, including from the Screen Actors Guild who gave it three awards nominations, Steven Yeun remains in a solid fourth place and will potentially make history as the first Asian-American to be nominated in Best Actor. Then there’s that last slot between Gary Oldman, Tahar Rahim, Delroy Lindo, and Mads Mikkelsen. Given how he’s the center of Best Picture hopeful Mank, common wisdom suggests it’s Gary Oldman who gets in, but him being snubbed by the BAFTAs, which should’ve been an easy nomination for him, might be telling. Granted, the acting nominees were chosen through a jury system rather than the entire acting branch, but still. British actor left out by the British Academy.

Although it could change by the time I hit “Publish,” I’m predicting that Golden Globe and BAFTA nominee Tahar Rahim gets that last slot for The Mauritanian. The fact that it isn’t just co-star Jodie Foster, who won Best Supporting Actress at the Globes, getting attention proves there’s clear passion for his performance. He even got in at the BAFTAs while Foster was left out. If Foster makes the cut, it’s hard not to imagine him getting pulled in.

Best Actress:

1. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland
3. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
4. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

This category remains up in the air. Even though Carey Mulligan remains at the top, it’s not something I’m entirely confident in given her BAFTA snub. Then there’s Frances McDormand who got in everywhere she’s needed to but given how she just won her second Oscar, there might be scant urgency to give her another so soon. Meanwhile, I have Andra Day and Viola Davis in third and fourth place with Vanessa Kirby as a vulnerable fifth. I’m tempted to say Sophia Loren bulldozes her way in for The Life Ahead despite not making any precursors. But the fact that an actress legend like her couldn’t even get in at the Golden Globes has me thinking she’ll be close but miss the cut. If there’s anyone else that could pull of a similar surprise, my guess is Han Ye-ri depending on how much they really love Minari.

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
4. Alan Kim, Minari
5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

This category remains Daniel Kaluuya’s to lose and if the film does indeed get a Best Picture nomination, he’s more of a sure thing than before. Meanwhile, Sacha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. remain in good standing. As for those last two slots, I’m predicting the fourth slot goes to Alan Kim (even if it’s a lead role) for Minari. Between the guild support for Minari, and the good few days he’s had recently with his Critics Choice win for Best Young Actor/Actress and his BAFTA nomination for Best Supporting Actor, his run has come at the right time during the Oscar nomination balloting period. Meanwhile, I’m still holding out hope for Paul Raci in Sound of Metal and picking him to get the fifth slot.

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari
2. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
3. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
4. Olivia Colman, The Father
5. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Much like Best Actress, this one is totally up in the air. Rather gloriously up in the air because let’s be honest, it’s no fun when there’s a guaranteed winner in every single acting category. Because of the category’s fluidity, I have Youn Yuh-jung at the top for her scene-stealing grandmother role in Minari. Compared to Bakalova, her film is a likelier Best Picture bet and given how Colman just won her first Oscar, a nomination is as far as she’ll likely go.

Meanwhile, Golden Globe winner Jodie Foster looks to pull a “Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell” and earn a “welcome back” citation after being away from the Oscar circuit in quite some time. Then there’s Amanda Seyfried in Mank who, even from those who weren’t high on the film, has earned great praise for her portrayal of Marion Davies. Even if Oldman manages to miss, Seyfried should still get in. That being said, Dominique Fishback is someone I’m keeping an eye on. Given how Judas and the Black Messiah has experienced a late surge, Fishback can easily ride the wave of her film and co-star Daniel Kaluuya’s performance to her first bid.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1. Nomadland
2. One Night in Miami..
3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
4. The Father
5. The White Tiger

This is a category for the first four are pretty set with the last slot sort of up for grabs. Because no Best Film winner at the New York Film Critics Circle has been shut out from the Oscars in its 86-year history, First Cow should be the one to nab that spot. However, First Cow has had trouble breaking out of its Gotham/Indie Spirits bubble so maybe it’s the one to (sadly) break that stat. There’s also Borat Subsequent Moviefilm which has experienced some strong guild support including a WGA and PGA nomination.

That being said, my prediction is that WGA and BAFTA nominee The White Tiger, written by Ramin Bahrani, nabs that final slot. Besides the fact that one of its stars, Priyanka Chopra Jonas, is co-presenting the nominations on Monday which could be a good sign, it gives me vibes of other dark comedies that earned a lone Screenplay nomination (In The Loop, In Bruges, The Lobster, Knives Out, etc.).

Best Original Screenplay:

1. Promising Young Woman
2. The Trial of the Chicago 7
3. Minari
4. Sound of Metal
5. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Interestingly, this entire category could be made up directors helming their own scripts. Emerald Fennell, Aaron Sorkin, Lee Isaac Chung, Darius Marder, and yes, Eliza Hittman. As my “NGNG” pick, I have Eliza Hittman making the cut for Never Rarely Sometimes Always over Jack Fincher’s script for Mank. Given how Mank is a film with strong technical prowess, I can envision a scenario where it’s seen as more of a directorial achievement than a writer-ly one.

So, those are how I think the big eight categories will go. What do you guys think? Please share your thoughts in the comments section!