94th Oscars: Chaos Reigns in Best Supporting Actress
As we enter the early stages of the Best Supporting Actress race, already, it seems quite competitive. Partially because there are performances that could make a play here yet seem to toe the line between Lead and Supporting and, at the time of this article being posted, have unconfirmed category placement: Caitriona Balfe in Belfast, Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth, and Jodie Comer in The Last Duel. Until it’s sure where all three ladies are being placed, they’ll remain off my predictions as of now.
At this point, I have Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog as the one out in front. After years of turning in exemplary work in films like Melancholia and Interview With the Vampire, it seems that the stars are finally aligning for Dunst to at least get her first Oscar nomination for the new Jane Campion pic.
While Dunst may be positioned as a front runner right now, with performances like Ann Dowd for Mass in the running, it won’t be easy. Dowd is another one who’s put in solid work for decades and has even earned an Emmy for her work on The Handmaid’s Tale. Yet, even after infamously funding her own Best Supporting Actress campaign for Compliance almost a decade ago, Oscar has yet to come calling. Her meaty role as the grieving mother of a school shooting perpetrator can easily change that. Although, will the lack of a needed fall festival run become a hurdle?
Meanwhile, Aunjanue Ellis is currently sitting at third for King Richard. With Will Smith as a Best Actor front runner (further thoughts to come soon), Ellis can easily get pulled along for her portrayal of Richard Williams’ wife Oracene “Brandy” Price. Given her two Emmy nominations, including one this year for Lovecraft Country, Ellis has clear respect within the industry and is in line to make an Oscar bid a part of her ongoing list of accolades.
Then there’s Ruth Negga for Passing. While the film had more of a mixed-to-positive response out of the Sundance Film Festival, even those who weren’t high on it have praised Ruth Negga’s performance. If there’s any handicap she might face besides the competitiveness of her category, it’s the fact that it could just be a Supporting Actress play unless it can also make its way in a tech category like Best Costume Design or Best Cinematography. However, let’s not forget that she’s not only a previous Oscar nominee for Loving, but she made the cut in a competitive category when she was on the fringe and up against starrier names. Who says similar lightning can’t strike twice?
For that final slot, I’ve gone back and forth between two former Oscar winners: Judi Dench in Belfast and Marlee Matlin for CODA. But between those two, I’m currently settling on Dench. The esteemed acting Dame won in this category for her eight-minute role in Shakespeare in Love and is an overall 7-time nominee. Plus, if Belfast, the People’s Choice winner at TIFF, does become a Best Picture front runner, it’s easy to see Dench being a form of acting representation. If co-star Caitriona Balfe ends up going Lead, that’ll leave even more room for Dench to make the cut.
Sights Unseen:
In the meantime, we’ll have to wait and see how Ariana DeBose will interpret the role of Anita in the new film adaptation of West Side Story. Additionally, can Toni Collette earn her overdue second bid for Nightmare Alley or will Cate Blanchett or Rooney Mara be the actress standout? Then there’s an actress who you might’ve heard of named Meryl Streep who plays the President in the upcoming Adam McKay satire Don’t Look Up. Also, is Salma Hayek’s role as the clairvoyant friend of Patrizia Reggiani in House of Gucci a juicy supporting turn or a quick cameo?
Outside Looking In:
The previously noted Marlee Matlin is currently on the outside looking in as she awaits her first nomination in 35 years. Also, Jayne Houdyshell won raves for playing the same matriarchal role in The Humans that she won a Tony for in the play it’s based on. Meanwhile, while Ann Dowd is a likely nomination bet for Mass, will co-star Martha Plimpton have her own cheering section? In addition, can Olga Merediz can remain in the mix for In The Heights after its bad box office/early release? Lastly, while Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand received their customary praise for The Tragedy of Macbeth, Kathryn Hunter earned standout mentions for her singular portrayal of the Three Witches.
Recap of Current Predicted Five:
- Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
- Ann Dowd, Mass
- Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
- Ruth Negga, Passing
- Judi Dench, Belfast
Where do you guys think the race stands as of now? Is it Kirsten Dunst’s to lose or is someone else out in front? Please share your thoughts!
