94th Oscars: Best Director Looks Like A Three-Way Battle
As part of my ongoing Oscar coverage, my latest post is on a category that rather refreshingly doesn’t have a clear-cut front runner: Best Director. At least the way I see it, Best Director looks like a three-person race and without further ado, let’s dive into where the race stands as of now.
After winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, Belfast feels well-positioned as a Best Picture front runner which means this award could be Kenneth Branagh’s to lose. For one, Belfast having a personal, semi-autobiographical narrative about Branagh’s own childhood upbringing in Ireland could strike a chord with viewers. Branagh is also helped by the fact that he’s a beloved industry figure with five Academy Award nominations across multiple fields; one for Best Director, two for acting, one for Best Live-Action Short Film, and one for Best Adapted Screenplay. The only thing is because he’s also the picture’s writer, Branagh can be rewarded by other means, allowing this trophy to be rewarded elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Jane Campion, the second woman in history to earn a Best Director nomination, could make more history with The Power of the Dog as the first woman to earn a follow-up directing nomination and the third woman ever to win Best Director after Kathryn Bigelow and Chloe Zhao. But, like Branagh, because she’s also the film’s screenwriter, she could be rewarded in Best Adapted Screenplay while they spread the wealth in this category.
In Best Director, there‘s always a slot reserved for at least one grand technical achievement. David Fincher for Mank, Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk, George Miller in Mad Max: Fury Road, etc.. This year, Denis Villeneuve‘s work on Dune could very well make him that “technical achievement” entry since the movie is doing decent pandemic numbers and could enter every below-the-line category possible. Because he’s a co-writer on the film, that means if he also gets an Adapted Screenplay nomination, he’s another one who’ll have more than one area to be rewarded.
But ultimately, should he appear in both categories, I’m more inclined to think Villeneuve will prevail here. Between Dune being a flashy technical achievement, and Villeneuve earning praise from his fellow directors like Christopher Nolan and our last Best Director winner Chloe Zhao, that could be enough to propel Villeneuve to his first Oscar win. Then again, with the recently announced Part 2 on the horizon, do they wait to reward him then?
A Battle for Fourth and Fifth of Global Proportions
As names like Bong Joon-ho, Pawel Pawlikowski, and Thomas Vinterberg will tell you, the directors branch is becoming even more partial to honoring filmmakers for non-English language pictures. This year, we have a fair amount of international directors looking to break through in this category: Paolo Sorrentino for Italy’s Hand of God, Asghar Farhadi’s for Iran’s A Hero, Julia Ducournau for the Palme D’Or winner Titane, Joachim Trier for Norway’s The Worst Person in the World, and Pedro Almodovar for Spain’s Parallel Mothers.
Between those five, I’m going to go with Julia Ducournau. I can also see a world where Asghar Farhadi makes it since he’s a previous Oscar nominee in Best Original Screenplay for A Separation and because he’s been in the filmmaking scene for almost two decades, feels primed for a “Thomas Vinterberg in Another Round”-type moment. Plus, while Ducournau won the Palme D’Or at Cannes, Farhadi did win the runner-up Grand Prix prize. But in case A Hero ends up being more of a Screenplay contender, I’m going with Ducournau’s go-for-broke directorial vision on Titane as of now for that fourth slot.
Then there’s another international filmmaker who’s been making a name for himself but has yet to earn his own stamp of approval: Pablo Larrain. After helming the unconventional Jackie, Larrain once again wows critics with Spencer, another depiction of a female icon’s tragic life story. Unless Spencer ends up being another Jackie, primarily making a play in Best Actress and a few below-the-line categories, I’m going to predict that Larrain rounds out the top five.
Outside Looking In:
As for those on the outside looking in, there’s Reinaldo Marcus Green for King Richard. Plus, even if it’s one half of the iconic Coen Bros. duo, Joel Coen should be one to consider for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Also, both actresses-turned-directors Rebecca Hall and Maggie Gyllenhaal earned positive praise for their respective debuts, Passing and The Lost Daughter. Additionally, should the Sundance crowd pleaser CODA resurface after its early summer release, Sian Heder could be another one to consider.
Sights Unseen:
In the meantime, we’ll see whether Ridley Scott will be in play for House of Gucci or if Guillermo del Toro can earn afterglow love for Nightmare Alley after winning Best Director for The Shape of Water. Then there’s Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza, Lin Manuel-Miranda for Tick, Tick..Boom!, Adam McKay for Don’t Look Up, and this one filmmaker you may know by the name of Spielberg helming the upcoming remake of West Side Story.
Let the games begin.
Current Predicted Five:
- Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
- Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
- Denis Villeneuve, Dune
- Julia Ducournau, Titane
- Pablo Larrain, Spencer
What do you guys think? Where do you guys think the Best Director stands as of now? Please share your thoughts!
