Feb 14, 2021
5 for Fifth: The State of the Best Actress Race Post-GG, SAG, and BAFTA Longlist
As we get closer to Oscar Nomination Day, the final slot for Best Actress appears quite up for grabs. So far, there are four names that have hit everywhere they needed to: Critics Choice, Golden Globe, SAG, and even the BAFTA longlist for Leading Actress.
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Meanwhile, we have about five names vying for that last slot and possibly, the fourth slot as well (I’ll explain why in a bit). First there’s SAG and BAFTA longlist nominee Amy Adams for Hillbilly Elegy. As Beverly, the drug-addicted mother of J.D. Vance, the previous 6-time Oscar nominee has the kind of flashy, transformative role voters often love. Given how her co-star Glenn Close is achieving frontrunner status in Best Supporting Actress, Adams could get pulled along with her. However, Adams did miss at the Globes, where she’s a favorite, and while she may be pushed in Lead Actress, she has a sparser amount of screen time compared to her competition.
Then there’s Andra Day who earned both a Critics Choice and Golden Globe nomination for her role as jazz singer Billie Holiday in The United States vs. Billie Holiday. Even if the film hasn’t had the most glowing response, Day’s performance has been praised and as names like Cynthia Erivo and our last Best Actress winner Renee Zellweger will tell you, AMPAS loves nominating biopic performances regardless of the picture’s quality.
Meanwhile, Zendaya earned a Critics Choice nomination, and a spot on the BAFTA longlist, for Malcolm & Marie. Besides missing at the Golden Globes and SAG, Zendaya’s biggest hurdle is the film’s polarizing response even if its detractors (myself included) agree that she’s a major highlight. That being said, Zendaya pulled off a surprise Emmy nomination, and eventual win, in Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series for Euphoria. So, Zendaya is having quite a moment in her career and because of the clear passion for her as a performer, there’s little reason to believe she can’t surprise here.
Next, we have another actress in a Netflix film, but an acting legend. Sophia Loren for The Life Ahead. Loren may not have earned a Golden Globe or SAG nomination, but she did make the BAFTA longlist and her film made both the Original Score and Original Song shortlist. Despite The Life Ahead not being Italy’s submission for Best International Feature, there is clear passion for it and Loren could easily benefit from that love. Loren is a silver screen icon and despite having won an Honorary Oscar 30 years ago, she hasn’t earned an individual acting nomination since Marriage, Italian Style back in 1964.
I would say we should consider Critics Choice nominee Sidney Flanigan for Never Rarely Sometimes Always since her film doesn’t have the same kind of polarizing response as Zendaya’s, Adams’, or Day’s. However, she missed the BAFTA longlist, the Golden Globes, and the SAG Awards. Usually, to make the cut with just a Critics Choice nod, you have to be in a Best Picture player, like Yalitza Aparicio in Roma, or be an established name like Marion Cotillard who bulldozed her way in for Two Days, One Night. Sadly, Flanigan falls into neither category.
As of now, I’d say those five are competing for fifth place. That being said, one of them could also land the fourth spot that Vanessa Kirby is currently occupying. Unlike Mulligan, Davis, and McDormand, Kirby is the sole representation of her polarizing picture. As we saw with Tilda Swinton in We Need To Talk About Kevin and Daniel Bruhl in Rush, that could cause her to miss the cut. That is unless her co-star Ellen Burstyn surprises her way in the Best Supporting Actress category. I still have Kirby getting nominated, but still feel that she’s vulnerable.
Anyhow, as for the last slot, for now, I’m going out on a limb and picking Sophia Loren. On a different day, I’d also go bold and predict Zendaya based on the performance itself along with her industry ascension. Yet, Loren is a living legend who’s also in a film with potentially more widespread support as opposed to Zendaya who looks to be the only bid for hers.
Could change tomorrow or two hours from now. But for now, I have Loren taking that fifth spot.
Current Best Actress predictions:
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead
Who do you think takes that fifth slot? Also, do you agree that Vanessa Kirby is vulnerable? Please share your thoughts!
